ITR/GGOB Economic Forecasting Challenge

GDP Forecasting Challenge

Guess the US GDP of Q4 2023 For A Chance to Win $1000!

Get ready for an exciting opportunity to win big! The Great Game of Business has partnered with ITR Economics to bring you the "GDP Forecasting Challenge." Here's your chance to sharpen your forecasting abilities, analyze economic trends, and take your shot at winning $1000!

Challenge:

Submit your best forecast of the Q4 2023 Real GDP of the United States

Dates of Challenge:

Challenge begins at the 2023 Great Game of Business Conference!
Forecasts must be submitted no later than 5pm CT on Friday, September 22, 2023
Winner will be announced Monday, April 1, 2024 @ 12p CT (subject to change if final numbers are delayed)

Rules:

This challenge is based on the Real GDP for the US ($ amount) for the end of Q4 2023.
The contestant who guesses the closest to the Real GDP will win $1000.
If the event of a tie, we will randomly draw from the entries closest to the actual number.
The winning number will be based on the final Q4 2023 Real GDP number which is set to be published at the end of March 2024 (publishing dates for 2024 have yet to be released).

Publishing Cadence for GDP Data

It’s quarterly data.
They release data every month, first a preliminary quarterly value, then a revised value, and then a final value.
They don’t publish monthly data for GDP.
Preliminary 4th quarter data for 2023 will be released in January 2024, around the 26th (they don’t have their 2024 release calendar up yet, so we don’t know the exact date).
The revised number will be in the end of February and the final in the end of March.

How to Participate:

Visit this landing page frequently for educational bites and the latest official numbers.
Submit your forecast using the below form. Your assignment: forecast the Q4 2023 GDP to the nearest billion (e.g. a great guess for Q3 be $20.386T)
You can submit multiple entries, but only your most recent one will be considered.

Don't miss this incredible opportunity to test your skills, learn from the experts at ITR Economics, and potentially win a substantial reward!

Economic Terms, Definitions, and Resources

Use the definitions, videos, and resources provided below to boost your understanding of economics and improve your forecast.

Rates-of-Change

The speed at which a particular economic variable changes over a specific period of time. It quantifies the percentage increase or decrease in the value of a variable relative to its previous value.

Leading Indicators

In economics, a leading indicator refers to a measurable economic variable that tends to change before the overall economy begins to follow a particular pattern or trend. It provides valuable insights into the future direction of economic activity and is used by analysts, policymakers, and investors to anticipate changes in the business cycle.

GDP

Real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States. GDP is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. GDP includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports minus imports that occur within a defined territory. Put simply, GDP is a broad measurement of a nation’s overall economic activity. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Measured in trillions of 2012 chained dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rate (SAAR).